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Persecution Expert Warns of Possible Invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan

Expert Warns of Possible Invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan

Secretary of State Blinken informed lawmakers that his department is monitoring Azerbaijan’s potential invasion of Armenia.

The call shows that the administration is very concerned about Azerbaijan’s actions in the region and the potential for the conflict to spread.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has previously called on Armenia to open a “corridor” along its southern border, linking mainland Azerbaijan to an exclave that borders Turkey and Iran. Aliyev has threatened to solve the issue “by force.”

In an Oct. 3 phone call, lawmakers pressed Blinken on possible measures against Aliyev in response to his country’s invasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in September, the people said, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive call.

Blinken stated that the State Department is exploring options to hold Azerbaijan responsible and extend the military aid waiver. He added that the state saw a possibility that Azerbaijan would invade southern Armenia in the coming weeks.

Blinken expressed confidence in ongoing talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to Democratic lawmakers, including Pelosi, Eshoo, and Pallone.

Two additional people confirmed that a briefing happened on the situation in Azerbaijan but did not provide details.

The State Department refused to comment on the call but emphasized its commitment to Armenia’s sovereignty and resolving conflict through direct talks.

The decision to hold off on renewing the waiver is also telling. Since 2002, the U.S. has issued a waiver to bypass a provision prohibiting military aid to Azerbaijan due to its territorial disputes with Armenia. The waiver lapsed in June, and the state had not explained why it hadn’t yet requested a renewal.

Since the briefing, Pallone has said publicly that he’s worried Azerbaijan could invade soon. “Aliyev is moving forward with his objective to take southern Armenia,” Pallone tweeted Wednesday, arguing that “his regime is emboldened after facing little consequences” for invading Nagorno-Karabakh.

Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh last month due to Azerbaijan’s military incursion. Local leaders surrendered and agreed to dissolve their unrecognized state under Russian mediation. Azerbaijani forces have since detained more than a dozen ex-leaders.

Blinken worried about Azerbaijan’s military actions and said using force to settle disagreements is unacceptable.

But Nagorno-Karabakh is not the only territorial dispute between the two Caucasus countries. Baku proposed a new route through Armenia for road traffic to bypass Iran.

Aliyev has said, “We will be implementing the Zangezur Corridor, whether Armenia wants it or not.”

“In Armenia, this is perceived as territorial claims and a demand for an extraterritorial corridor,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Wednesday in response to growing calls from Ankara and Baku to agree.

Tensions have existed at the border for a long time. In September 2022, Azerbaijan attacked Armenia to gain control of strategic high ground. More recently, on Sept. 1 of this year, three Armenian servicemen were killed after Azerbaijan launched “retaliatory measures” in response to an alleged drone attack.

Hikmet Hajiyev, Aliyev’s senior foreign policy adviser, rejected Azerbaijan’s territorial claims against Armenia. He said that the risk of conflict was low because “the last two weeks had been the calmest weeks in the history of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations—there are no longer soldiers in the trenches staring at one another” in the wake of actions in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Azerbaijan restored what legally, historically, and morally was ours” with its self-described “anti-te.”

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